| Energy Outlook: |
| Years ago, Peak Oil seemed very soon. As of 2016, the emergence of Shale Oil has certainly extended the petroleum supply. At this point, we don’t know what to expect. |
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| Much of the research and documentation we see, points to the world being close to a point known as 'Hubbert's Peak' or 'Peak Oil'. This is, in theory, the point where global oil production reaches the top of a bell curve, levels off, and then heads into decline. |
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| The below quotes are from the US government GAO report issued Feb. 2007. |
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| "Most studies estimate that (global) oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040" "US oil production peaked around 1970 and has been on a declining trend ever since". "Because development and widespread adoption of technologies to displace oil will take time and effort, an imminent peak and sharp decline in oil production could have severe consequences." "...The consequences of a peak and permanent decline in oil production could be even more prolonged and severe than those of past oil shocks. Because the decline would be neither temporary nor reversible..." |
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| Reprinted with permission from The Energy Bulletin |
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Further info:
Full GAO report: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf
A primer on peak oil: http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php
For government numbers on global oil production: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t14.xls
This US government site shows global oil production data for the past several years (some key data is shown below). This can help you cut through the hype and see for yourself if global oil production is rising, flat, or declining. |
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US government (EIA) data on global oil production - World Oil Supply
(Production units in thousands of barrels per day) |
| Year |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
Average Daily
Production |
74,158 |
75,654 |
74,840 |
77,762 |
77,684 |
76,995 |
79,598 |
83,105 |
84,595 |
84,661 |
84,543 |
85,507 |
84,403 |
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| Video to change the world: The Ultimate Roller Coaster Ride: A Brief History of Fossil Fuels, Richard Heinberg, Post Carbon Institute |
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| Climate Skeptic Arguments and What the Science Really Says: Here is a good summary of climate skeptic arguments, sorted by recent popularity vs. what science says. Note that the one line responses are just a starting point - click the response for a more detailed response. You can also view them sorted in a print-friendly version. Note in the right hand column are the latest links. http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php (this was forwarded via 4CP newsletter)
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