| Energy Outlook: |
| Much of the research and documentation we see, points to the world being close to a point known as 'Hubbert's Peak' or 'Peak Oil'. This is, in theory, the point where global oil production reaches the top of a bell curve, levels off, and then heads into decline. |
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| The below quotes are from the US government GAO report issued Feb. 2007. |
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| "Most studies estimate that (global) oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040" "US oil production peaked around 1970 and has been on a declining trend ever since". "Because development and widespread adoption of technologies to displace oil will take time and effort, an imminent peak and sharp decline in oil production could have severe consequences." "...The consequences of a peak and permanent decline in oil production could be even more prolonged and severe than those of past oil shocks. Because the decline would be neither temporary nor reversible..." |
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| Reprinted with permission from The Energy Bulletin |
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Further info:
Full GAO report: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf
A primer on peak oil: http://energybulletin.net/primer.php
For government numbers on global oil production: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t14.xls
This US government site shows global oil production data for the past several years (some key data is shown below). This can help you cut through the hype and see for yourself if global oil production is rising, flat, or declining. |
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US government (EIA) data on global oil production
(Production units in thousands of barrels per day) |
| Year |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
Average Daily
production |
74,158 |
75,654 |
74,840 |
77,762 |
77,684 |
76,995 |
79,615 |
83,124 |
84,631 |
84,597 |
84,635 |
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